Will the SNP remain Holyrood’s largest party in 2027?

Scotland’s next scheduled Parliament election has entered its candidate-selection and polling phase, turning the SNP’s position at Holyrood into a live national question. The Scottish Parliament confirms that voters elect 129 MSPs through constituency and regional ballots. The forecast closes on 6 May 2027, but the answer must wait until every official result has been declared.

The 2027 decision at a glance

• Question: Will the SNP win strictly more seats than every other party?
• Deadline: The forecast closes on 6 May 2027, the scheduled election date.
• YES: The SNP finishes alone with the highest total of MSPs.
• NO: Another party wins more seats, or the SNP ties for the highest total.
• Final check: All constituency and regional results must be officially declared.

This is a forecast about which single party occupies the strongest numerical position in the Scottish Parliament. It is not a prediction that the SNP will secure an outright majority, form the government or pass its programme without support from other MSPs.

Scotland’s two ballots make the seat contest harder to predict

Scottish Parliament elections use the additional member system. Each voter can make two separate choices: one for a constituency candidate and another for a party or independent candidate on a regional list.

Scotland elects 73 constituency MSPs using first past the post. The candidate receiving the most votes in each constituency wins, even without securing more than half of all votes cast there.

A further 56 MSPs are elected across eight regions, with seven regional seats available in each. These seats are allocated using a formula intended to make the overall result in each region more proportional. Parties that have already won constituency seats face a larger divisor when regional places are calculated.

That corrective mechanism matters to the SNP forecast. A party can perform strongly in constituency contests but receive relatively few regional seats because its earlier victories are included in the calculation. Conversely, a rival that wins fewer constituencies may recover seats through its regional vote.

The Scottish Parliament’s election guide explains the constituency and regional routes through which all 129 MSPs are chosen. The Electoral Commission provides official information about forthcoming elections and the voting process.

Largest party does not mean majority government

The SNP only needs to finish ahead of every other individual party for this forecast to resolve YES. It does not need to reach the 65 seats normally required for a majority in the 129-member chamber.

That distinction creates several plausible outcomes. The SNP could be the largest party while remaining well short of 65 seats. Another party could also lead the chamber without holding a majority. In either case, governing would depend on negotiations, a coalition, a formal cooperation agreement or support secured vote by vote.

The identity of the largest party still matters. It influences who has the strongest initial claim to lead an administration, who controls the political agenda and how negotiations begin after the election. It does not automatically determine who becomes First Minister, because Parliament must nominate that office-holder.

Nor does the forecast ask whether pro-independence parties collectively hold more seats than unionist parties. Each party’s total is assessed separately. Seats held by another party cannot be added to the SNP’s figure when deciding whether the SNP is the largest single party.

The clearest route to a YES result

A YES outcome becomes more likely if the SNP protects a substantial share of its constituency seats while avoiding a major decline in its regional-list vote. Constituency resilience is especially important because small shifts in closely contested seats can change the national total quickly.

Several developments would strengthen that route:

• SNP candidates remain competitive across constituencies won at the previous election.
• Opposition gains are divided among more than one rival party.
• The SNP’s regional vote provides replacement seats where constituencies are lost.
• Candidate selections avoid disruptive local splits or prominent independent challenges.
• Campaign issues favour the SNP’s record or constitutional message.

Candidate quality can affect individual constituencies even when national polling appears stable. Retirements, incumbency, local disputes and tactical voting may all produce results that differ from Scotland-wide trends.

Regional lists provide a partial buffer, but not a guaranteed one. If the SNP retains many constituency seats in a region, the allocation formula may sharply reduce its prospects of also winning list seats there. A modest constituency setback could produce some regional compensation, although the number recovered would depend on the list vote and every other party’s performance.

How the forecast could resolve NO

The result is NO if any other party finishes with more seats than the SNP. It is also NO if the SNP and another party share the highest total, because the rule requires the SNP to hold a strictly larger number.

A rival could overtake the SNP by combining constituency gains with an efficient regional-list performance. It would not necessarily need to dominate both ballots everywhere. Concentrated constituency support in competitive areas, followed by enough regional votes to collect additional seats elsewhere, could be sufficient.

The NO path would become more credible if several signals appeared together:

• Repeated polls show another party approaching or passing the SNP on relevant vote measures.
• Constituency-level evidence identifies a broad group of vulnerable SNP seats.
• Opposition support consolidates behind one principal challenger.
• Regional projections show that list seats would not compensate for SNP constituency losses.
• Candidate withdrawals, defections or strong independents reshape specific contests.

A tie deserves particular attention because it is easy to misread. If the SNP and a rival both finish on the same leading total, the SNP has not won more seats than every other party. That outcome therefore resolves NO even if the SNP participates in the eventual government.

Polls cannot be translated directly into Holyrood seats

Polling will be central to the forecast, but headline vote shares are not enough. Reliable analysis must distinguish between constituency voting intention and regional-list voting intention. Applying one number uniformly across Scotland can hide important regional and local differences.

Seat projections also depend on assumptions about how votes move between constituencies. A uniform national swing may offer a useful starting point, but it cannot fully capture incumbency, tactical voting, new candidates or geographically concentrated changes.

Signals that carry more weight

A single poll can reflect sampling variation or methodological choices. A run of polls from different organisations is more informative, particularly when the same direction appears in both ballots.

The most useful public evidence before election day will include:

• Separate constituency and regional polling figures.
• Multiple polls rather than one isolated result.
• Named candidates and confirmed regional lists.
• Constituency projections that explain their assumptions.
• Evidence about turnout and voter transfers between the two ballots.

Uncertainty may remain high even late in the campaign. Several close constituency results could determine which party leads the final table, while the regional allocation cannot be completed until the relevant votes and constituency outcomes are known.

Public policy will depend on the parliamentary arithmetic

The largest-party result will shape negotiations over taxation, housing, health, education and transport. A leading party with a commanding advantage may find it easier to set the terms of debate. A narrow lead in a fragmented Parliament would require more compromise.

That affects practical decisions such as income-tax policy, NHS funding priorities, school reform, affordable-housing programmes and transport investment. However, the forecast alone cannot show which policies will pass. Manifestos, post-election agreements and the balance among all 129 MSPs will determine what becomes achievable.

Readers should therefore separate two questions when results arrive: which party has the most seats, and which grouping can assemble enough parliamentary support to govern. The first resolves this forecast; the second may take days or weeks of political negotiation.

The final declaration settles the question

Resolution must wait until all 73 constituency results and all 56 regional seats have been officially declared. Partial counts, broadcaster projections and party statements do not settle the outcome.

The forecast resolves YES only when the final official totals show the SNP alone in first place. It resolves NO if another party leads or if the SNP shares the highest total. Any delayed declaration must be included before resolution, while later defections or changes of party affiliation do not alter the election result.

The decisive next check will be the complete official Holyrood seat table after every constituency and regional declaration, not the first exit poll or an early run of constituency victories.

Source: Scottish Parliament